– Good morning,

Apologies for being a day late. To be completely honest, I forgot what day it was yesterday and didn’t realize until after dinner that I missed publishing a member post. Sorry about that!

Hope you all had great breaks. I for one am happy to be back at it.

On to the update:

Augur disputes

Disclosure, I hold a tiny bit of REP

In December, the creator of the Augur market for predicting which party controlled the House after the mid-terms reported that Republicans was the correct answer, despite Democrats winning the the majority. S/he justified this decision by saying that at the time of the market’s close, Republicans still had the majority. I wrote:

What happens now? REP holders are allowed to dispute this result starting next Wednesday, December 19th. The mechanics of the dispute phase (and all of Augur to be honest) are pretty complicated, but in short this is how it works:

  1. A market outcome is reported, that outcome becomes the “tentative outcome”
  2. REP holders are allowed to dispute the outcome
  3. If enough REP holders choose another outcome, that outcome becomes the “tentative outcome”
  4. Back to step 2 until nobody successfully disputes

This can go on for some time, as Robert Miller pointed out to me yesterday. A market on whether the weather was good during the Bastille Day parade was disputed fifteen times.

A month has passed and the market still has not resolved. After the initial decision of Republican, a successful dispute turned the decision to Democrat. Until another successful dispute turned it to Republican. And then Democrat, then Republican, and now we’re waiting for the next dispute window to open at which time I’d expect another successful dispute from Democrats. You can see the riveting sequence here.

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