I get nervous every time I hear someone say “the next bull market” like it’s a given. It makes me think that there won’t be a next bull market, despite my high conviction that there will be one. The intelligent investor doesn’t believe past performance predicts future results. Though she also doesn’t believe things are different this time either

Anyways, it’s hard to ignore the eerie similarities between things from the Bitcoin annals and things today. Zooko dug up this post following the Gox hack of 2011 where he says:

For context, after the Great Bitcoin Bubble Pop of 2011, the price of Bitcoin in $ slid to a low of $2. Then in the last 30 days or so it has shown a steady climb—currently at $3.5—on fairly steady volume of trading:


Now to be clear, I’m not hereby predicting that the price will rise further, I’m saying that the fact that the currency is still traded at all is remarkable! No other digital money design to date could have kept on ticking after taking such a beating.


My current belief is that there is little you can do with that which would actually successfully steal money from Bitcoin users, and that you would probably make more profit by running a legitimate mining operation than by trying to do rollback attack on the public ledger. However, I’m not entirely sure of that.

Still very true! In the face of negative shocks, when trading profits disappear, Bitcoin leaves us with “just” a completely unseizable money. Even if BTC the cryptocurrency falls in price, Bitcoin the public ledger continues to chug along, largely indifferent to the sentiment of traders.

Already a member? Read the full update here

Become a member to get posts like this

Support the site and get members-only benefits

Subscribe for $100 a year

or subscribe monthly for $12 a month

Members receive a members-only analysis each week that is timely and substantial. I've been asked to be more opinionated and responsive to current events, so I'll try to do that in this more private forum. If you want my critical take on what matters in the industry, you might enjoy these analyses.

You can see a sample of a members-only analysis here. And a list of all of them here. Don't take it from me, check out these tweets from members:

  • "@tonysheng's writing is the best out there and this is worth every penny" --Myles Snider, CEO of Aurora EOS
  • "Highly recommend signing up for a membership if you're full-time in crypto or passionate about the space" --Spencer Noon, Managing Partner at DTC Capital
  • "All signal, no noise" --Zach Segal, Product at Coinbase

Over time, I'd love to develop more benefits like transcripts of podcasts (maybe host my own), a members-only discussion forum, AMAs with industry leaders, and more.

Thank you. I hope you'll stick around.


If you aren’t already familiar with my work, I write long-form analyses on building and investing in crypto, and the impact of crypto on society.

My readers include investors at Union Square Ventures, a16z, Village Global, Multicoin Capital, Scalar Capital, and Polychain and builders of Bitcoin, Ethereum, Zcash, EOS, Tezos, 0x, and Coinbase.

Some awfully nice things people have said:

Tony’s blog is one of the best hidden gems in crypto. The content is regularly some of the most insightful out there. I read every post with a fine toothed comb.

–Kyle Samani, Cofounder and Managing Partner, Multicoin Capital

Tony is one of the most insightful and independent writers in the space. His newsletter consistently provides original perspectives on crypto/blockchain fundamentals that inspire you to think more critically.

–Soona Amhaz, Cofounder and CEO, Token Daily

If you read one person’s writing in the space, make it Tony’s. Tony breaks down complicated crypto concepts and economic theories in ways that educate both the beginner and expert alike.

–Erik Torenberg, Cofounder and Partner, Village Global

Not a member? You're missing out.

Join thousands of crypto insiders who make reading my analyses a part of their weekly routine.

Subscribe for $100 a year

or subscribe monthly for $12 a month

Member updates

May 23, 2019

Ingredients for a good crypto game (Cheeze Wizards)

May 9, 2019

Are bitcoin reorgs bad? (plus on-chain cashflow)

May 2, 2019

Understanding Chamath Palihapitiya's optimism about cryptocurrrencies (plus Tether stuff)